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Global Risks 2020

MACRO STRATEGY

This Time is Different

Apr. 16, 2020

The United States has just entered a recession without a true precedent. As a consequence, models of past behavior are unlikely to offer a roadmap to what the recession will look like, either in terms of the magnitude of the recession, its duration, or the recovery.

However, the significant challenges the United States faced moving from a war economy to a peace time economy and absorbing millions of former soldiers back into an economy in transition may offer a glimpse of the near-term outlook. If so, we believe it could take longer to return to a normal labor market than to return to a more normal economy.