Trade Uncoupling

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Trade Uncoupling

MACRO STRATEGY

Trade Uncoupling

Feb. 27, 2020

The future of trade would likely be in services and digital products of all types, with goods trade and supply chains diminishing in importance. Uncertainties are likely to remain until challenging issues—intellectual property, dispute settlement, digital services trade in particular—are addressed. Risks for major trade-related flare-ups are somewhat lower in this election year. The election is likely to determine how the U.S. engages on trade over the next few years.