Emerging Markets Debt Update

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Emerging Markets Debt Update

PUBLIC FIXED INCOME

Emerging Markets Debt Update

Apr. 24, 2020

The past few months have been a trying time for the global economy and the markets, as they have been hit with multiple shocks, on the growth and commodities fronts. The severity of the Covid-19 demand shock has been compounded by the OPEC-related supply shock for many countries across developed and emerging markets.  Policy makers have reacted with dramatic monetary and fiscal measures attempting to build a bridge between the global economy that existed pre-pandemic and the economy that will exist afterwards. Trying to minimize the damage to the broad economy seems to be the key attribute of the policy responses thus far.  However, from our perspective the length of the needed bridge and the economy that exists when this is behind us is not entirely clear.  With this amount of uncertainty, we are relying on our investment process to assess vulnerabilities and potential resilience across the sovereign and corporate credit landscape. Our global research teams have been analyzing economic growth expectations and conducting liquidity analysis on an ever-changing landscape of emerging market credit during this unprecedented time. That analysis seeks to identify the vulnerabilities as well as the potential levers sovereigns have to weather the storm, through monetary or fiscal channels, reserve buffers, and access to multilaterals, among other avenues.