The Winding Path to Recovery: Our 2021 Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

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The Winding Path to Recovery: Our 2021 Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

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William Pattison Reginald Ross, Michael Steinberg and Austin Iglehart
DEC 17, 2020

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Some of the most positive economic indicators since the close of World War II were released in the final months of 2020. The announcement of several 90% effective vaccines now makes it more likely that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will diminish in the coming months rather than the coming years, and that demand for commercial real estate may begin slowly recovering. Although risks remain – from the spike in infections in recent weeks to the rate at which U.S. employment will continue to recover – we have a positive outlook for real estate investment opportunities in 2021. In this report, we outline how commercial real estate investors can navigate a winding path to recovery. We believe the lingering effects of COVID-19 will drive uneven performance across property types. Additionally, strained municipal budgets and the potential for rising property taxes could present both risks and opportunities across metropolitan areas in the coming year.