Market Insights

Gain actionable market insights with whitepapers, articles and reports from our analysts.

  • Real Estate

    A New Dawn in Retail: Targeting Retail Real Estate Markets Where the Sun Still Shines

    September 2019

    We believe U.S. economic growth and labor markets remain on solid footing. Trade frictions and other geopolitical tensions have not pushed the current expansion off course, but the associated uncertainty could pose a risk. Experience based retail continues to outperform, and store openings are outpacing closings. E-commerce spending varies by market, and we believe this variance is driving retail real estate demand more than investors realize. We developed a framework that aims to estimate which retail real estate markets are most likely, and most unlikely, to be further disrupted by e-commerce.

  • Agricultural Finance

    Agricultural Outlook

    Summer 2019

    Against the backdrop of a strong domestic economy, U.S. agricultural producers in 2019 continue to endure trade disputes, large inventories, and planting delays. Although China’s retaliatory tariffs have impacted the sector, weather challenges and disease pressure abroad have lifted prices for key agricultural commodities, presenting some upside to the U.S. agricultural outlook.

  • Real Estate

    Core Real Estate for U.S. Insurers

    June 2019

    Core real estate equity offers insurers a multitude of potential benefits.

  • Macro Strategy

    The Inverted Yield Curve: Harbinger of Recession?

    May 2019

    An inversion of the U.S. yield curve historically precedes a U.S. recession with an average lead time of about 14 months. According to our yield curve-based model, there is a 34% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators indicates that the U.S. economy is slowing, not contracting. The latter, not the former, is what historically tends to precede a recession. The spread between year-over-year nominal GDP growth and the federal funds rate suggests that current policy is still accommodative in our view. Solid corporate profit growth and a record low unemployment rate underpin a positive fundamental view. 

  • Macro Strategy

    Last Time Was Different: Why Recession Fears are Overdone

    April 2019

    We believe the next recession is likely to be anti-climactic, particularly for anyone whose only experience is the 2008 financial crisis. We feel a normal, or possibly even shallow recession is more likely. However, the current weak position of monetary policy means that speed of recovery may be of greater concern than depth of a future recession.

  • Real Estate

    Industrial, Opportunity, and CRE (Abstract Only)

    March 2019

    A modestly weaker demand outlook and similar levels of supply growth should leave fundamentals balanced in 2019. Near term risks include the rollback of lending regulations and the introduction of opportunity zones, which add uncertainty to future supply forecasts. We expect the industrial sector to outperform other sectors in 2019. Further, in this issue of the Investment Strategy Quarterly, we outline why investors have significantly underestimated the pace of industrial demand growth in the past, and are likely continuing to do so today.

  • Agricultural Finance

    California Table Grape Insight

    April 2019

    Despite growing competition from South American producers over the last few years, California table grape growers have remained resilient and expanded output to capitalize on growing global grape consumption, particularly in Asia. Recent trade tensions and rising labor costs have been headwinds for table grape producers. Still, the long-term outlook for California’s table grapes remains positive as fervent global demand and exports will continue to support the industry.

  • Private Fixed Income

    Private Debt Quarterly Investment Update

    1Q 2019

    MetLife Investment Management is pleased to provide you with our latest Private Debt Quarterly Investment Update, which provides our outlook on the global private placement market.

  • Macro Strategy

    Not Dead Yet: Productivity is Looking Mid-Cycle

    March 2019

    U.S. labor productivity growth has been increasing over the last several quarters. This is strange late cycle behavior; improvements in productivity historically tend to happen during the recovery phase of a business cycle. We see this as a sign that the business cycle could have some life left to it, and a recession may not begin until after 2020.

  • Public Fixed Income

    Emerging Market Debt Perspectives: A Specialized Q&A for Insurance Investors

    March 2019

    To say the past ten years have been uniquely challenging for insurance investors would be an understatement. As developed market interest rates fell and regulatory scrutiny increased, many investors turned to emerging market debt (EMD) to reach for the yield their portfolios required. Despite this increased willingness to invest in the asset class, we frequently field questions from clients and prospects in the insurance space about the inherent risks of EMD, especially when compared to developed markets.

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