Market Insights

Gain actionable market insights with whitepapers, articles and reports from our analysts.

  • Real Estate

    Industrial, Opportunity, and CRE (Abstract Only)

    March 2019

    A modestly weaker demand outlook and similar levels of supply growth should leave fundamentals balanced in 2019. Near term risks include the rollback of lending regulations and the introduction of opportunity zones, which add uncertainty to future supply forecasts. We expect the industrial sector to outperform other sectors in 2019. Further, in this issue of the Investment Strategy Quarterly, we outline why investors have significantly underestimated the pace of industrial demand growth in the past, and are likely continuing to do so today.

  • Agricultural Finance

    California Table Grape Insight

    April 2019

    Despite growing competition from South American producers over the last few years, California table grape growers have remained resilient and expanded output to capitalize on growing global grape consumption, particularly in Asia. Recent trade tensions and rising labor costs have been headwinds for table grape producers. Still, the long-term outlook for California’s table grapes remains positive as fervent global demand and exports will continue to support the industry.

  • Macro Strategy

    Not Dead Yet: Productivity is Looking Mid-Cycle

    March 2019

    U.S. labor productivity growth has been increasing over the last several quarters. This is strange late cycle behavior; improvements in productivity usually happen during the recovery phase of a business cycle. We see this as a sign that the business cycle has some life left to it, and a recession may not begin until after 2020.

  • Macro Strategy

    Are We There Yet?

    March 2019

    We are in the late expansion phase of the credit cycle. At present there seems to be an elevated risk of recession by market participants in the 2020-2021 timeframe. Our credit cycle model is based on eight key indicators which we’ve back-tested rigorously since the mid-1980’s: high yield spreads, 3 mo. /10 yr. Treasury curve, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, CCC issuance, non-financial debt growth, profit growth, shareholder payout ratio and Fed policy. In prior down cycles (’01, ’08, ’15) our credit model flashed an average of six sell signals each time. Today our model is flashing four sell signals. We don’t expect a credit down cycle in the next 12 months despite recent market anxiety of one potentially occurring.

  • Real Estate

    Investment Opportunities in Private Commercial Mortgages

    January 2019

    Private commercial mortgages comprise a large and diverse asset class which can provide investors favorable risk-adjusted returns, low loss rates, and low correlations with other asset classes. Additionally, their flexible structures make private commercial mortgages attractive vehicles for liability driven investment strategies.

  • Macro Strategy

    Global View: 2019 Risks

    January 2019

    We expect global growth to decelerate in 2019 even as the U.S. economy is expected to remain a point of strength. In our view, the changing relationship between the U.S. and China—and a potentially weaker Chinese economy—is the single most significant risk globally. Market volatility and business confidence are key risks. The Fed hiking cycle and oil price fluctuations also remain key concerns. There is generally more downside risk than upside risk to our 2019 view.

  • Macro Strategy

    A Stable Outlook for the U.S. Housing Sector

    January 2019

    Much of the data coming from the housing sector has been lackluster and many investors are wondering if there is cause for worry. Though the general economic recovery has been rather prolonged, we find evidence to suggest that there remain bright spots in the residential real estate market and that continued, albeit moderated, growth over the medium-to-long term is still the base case scenario.

  • Private Fixed Income

    Private Debt Quarterly Investment Update

    4Q 2018

    MetLife Investment Management is pleased to provide you with our latest Private Debt Quarterly Investment Update, which provides our outlook on the global private placement market.

  • Real Estate

    Real Estate and Reflation: How Rising Deficits and Partisan Gridlock May Work in Real Estate’s Favor (Abstract Only)

    December 2018

    Accelerating economic growth and a small supply pipeline relative to history have left real estate fundamentals in a solid position, especially when compared to similar periods in past cycles. As a new congress takes office next month, however, the risk of government gridlock also rises, similar to the split congress that took office in 2011. For several years following 2011, legislation was slow to move, a government shutdown slowed economic growth, and U.S. Treasury debt was either put on negative watch or downgraded by the major rating agencies. Today, rising deficits and the threat of government dysfunction may leave the Federal Reserve in the unfortunate position of balancing its low inflation mandate with the economic repercussions of potential further rating downgrades. This dynamic, as well as tariffs and a tight labor market, point toward potentially higher inflation in 2019 and beyond. Portfolio managers who increase their allocation to inflation protected sectors, such as real estate, may therefore be better positioned to outperform.

  • Macro Strategy

    2019 U.S. Growth Should Exceed Expectations

    October 2018

    2019 U.S. growth should exceed expectations as a strong consumer and a rebound in productivity allow for the economic cycle to extend further. Tax cuts are supportive of both consumption and investment while government spending should also play a role. As a consequence of healthy growth we would look for the Fed to follow its forecast of another 100 bps of tightening through year-end 2019 and expect 10-year yields to end 2019 at 3.75%.

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