Last Time Was Different: Why Recession Fears are Overdone

April 2019

The 2008 financial crisis has colored perceptions of what a recession looks like. The markets and consumers appear to be overreacting to concerns about a recession. We expect a normal, perhaps mild next recession toward 2021: we do not see any gross imbalances or threats of a financial crisis that could cause an abnormal recession. There is some possibility of a slower than normal recovery, with little help available from policymakers.

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