• Real Estate

    A New Dawn in Retail: Targeting Retail Real Estate Markets Where the Sun Still Shines

    September 2019

    We believe U.S. economic growth and labor markets remain on solid footing. Trade frictions and other geopolitical tensions have not pushed the current expansion off course, but the associated uncertainty could pose a risk. Experience based retail continues to outperform, and store openings are outpacing closings. E-commerce spending varies by market, and we believe this variance is driving retail real estate demand more than investors realize. We developed a framework that aims to estimate which retail real estate markets are most likely, and most unlikely, to be further disrupted by e-commerce.

  • Real Estate

    Core Real Estate for U.S. Insurers

    June 2019

    Core real estate equity offers insurers a multitude of potential benefits.

  • Real Estate

    Industrial, Opportunity, and CRE (Abstract Only)

    March 2019

    A modestly weaker demand outlook and similar levels of supply growth should leave fundamentals balanced in 2019. Near term risks include the rollback of lending regulations and the introduction of opportunity zones, which add uncertainty to future supply forecasts. We expect the industrial sector to outperform other sectors in 2019. Further, in this issue of the Investment Strategy Quarterly, we outline why investors have significantly underestimated the pace of industrial demand growth in the past, and are likely continuing to do so today.

  • Real Estate

    Investment Opportunities in Private Commercial Mortgages

    January 2019

    Private commercial mortgages comprise a large and diverse asset class which can provide investors favorable risk-adjusted returns, low loss rates, and low correlations with other asset classes. Additionally, their flexible structures make private commercial mortgages attractive vehicles for liability driven investment strategies.

  • Real Estate

    Real Estate and Reflation: How Rising Deficits and Partisan Gridlock May Work in Real Estate’s Favor (Abstract Only)

    December 2018

    Accelerating economic growth and a small supply pipeline relative to history have left real estate fundamentals in a solid position, especially when compared to similar periods in past cycles. As a new congress takes office next month, however, the risk of government gridlock also rises, similar to the split congress that took office in 2011. For several years following 2011, legislation was slow to move, a government shutdown slowed economic growth, and U.S. Treasury debt was either put on negative watch or downgraded by the major rating agencies. Today, rising deficits and the threat of government dysfunction may leave the Federal Reserve in the unfortunate position of balancing its low inflation mandate with the economic repercussions of potential further rating downgrades. This dynamic, as well as tariffs and a tight labor market, point toward potentially higher inflation in 2019 and beyond. Portfolio managers who increase their allocation to inflation protected sectors, such as real estate, may therefore be better positioned to outperform.

  • Real Estate

    Tariffs Add to the Tally: Market and Policy Factors Are Set to Pull the Reins on Supply Growth (Abstract Only)

    Summer 2018

    Solid economic growth continues to produce favorable conditions for commercial real estate. Rising trade tensions likely pose the greatest near term risk to these positive conditions, but they may also come with some unintended benefits. In this issue of the Investment Strategy Quarterly we examine how market and policy factors are increasing construction costs, compressing development yields, and ultimately reducing future supply growth.

  • Real Estate

    On the Road Again: How Advances in Transportation are Shaping the Future of Real Estate

    2018

    Advances in transportation technology have shaped the form, pace, and direction of real estate demand throughout the nation’s history. We believe that the adoption of ridesharing services and advances in autonomous and electric vehicle technology are set to do so once again. In our latest strategy white paper we examine the effects these changes are already having on real estate demand, and explore the investment opportunities they will create in the future.

  • Real Estate

    An Encore Presentation: Our 2018 Outlook for Commercial Real Estate (Abstract Only)

    2018

    With the year now well under way, we set out to examine the economic, property market, and capital markets factors likely to drive commercial real estate performance in 2018. Thanks to the boost provided by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act we believe that aggregate performance will be largely similar to that of 2017, but much like the impacts of the law itself, it may vary significantly by property type and market. In this issue of the Investment Strategy Quarterly we will explore the impacts of the tax reform, discuss the difference between job growth and employment growth, envision the end of a capital market era, and reveal our forecasts for what is set to be another solid year for commercial real estate.

  • Real Estate

    Pricing Like It's 1999: Relative pricing between the office and apartment sectors raises questions (Abstract Only)

    December 2017

    With economic conditions and real estate fundamentals appearing solid, we examine a somewhat peculiar development in the pricing relationship between the office and apartment sectors.

  • Real Estate

    A Red Herring in Retail: As headlines rattle retail, we sense opportunity (Abstract Only)

    September 2017

    We believe that conditions in both the U.S. economy and real estate market remain largely favorable, having changed little in the past several months. The popular narrative regarding the retail sector, however, has turned notably more negative. In this edition of the Investment Strategy Quarterly we explain why we do not share that view, discuss the misconceptions that are driving it, and highlight the opportunities it may present.

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