WHY WE FEEL THE U.S. ECONOMIC EXPANSION IS NOT OVER YET
Key variables suggest a healthy U.S. consumer is offsetting the only modest fallout from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and other global uncertainties. Despite the duration of economic expansion, the rate of expansion has been slow. As a result, there has not been a buildup of excesses that has typically worked against future growth historically. Given the strength of the economic indicators and the lack of an obvious triggering mechanism for a downturn, we feel it is more likely that the next recession will occur after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, not before.