Macro strategy: Why We Feel the U.S. Economic Expansion is Not Over Yet

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MACRO STRATEGY

Is the End Near?

Why we Feel the U.S. Economic Expansion is Not Over Yet

WHY WE FEEL THE U.S. ECONOMIC EXPANSION IS NOT OVER YET 

Key variables suggest a healthy U.S. consumer is offsetting the only modest fallout from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and other global uncertainties. Despite the duration of economic expansion, the rate of expansion has been slow. As a result, there has not been a buildup of excesses that has typically worked against future growth historically. Given the strength of the economic indicators and the lack of an obvious triggering mechanism for a downturn, we feel it is more likely that the next recession will occur after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, not before.