Uruguay: How Governance Drives Fundamentals, Sovereign Ratings, and Credit Risk Premium

Uruguay: How Governance Drives Fundamentals, Sovereign Ratings, and Credit Risk Premium

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Metlife Investment Management
JUN 05, 2024
Uruguay: How Governance Drives Fundamentals, Sovereign Ratings, and Credit Risk Premium
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We believe the influence of governance on Uruguay’s credit profile and risk premium has been positive. The country has a long history of strong institutions and consensus-based policy-making tradition that leads to durable policy decisions and supports social cohesion. Uruguay has a high ranking at 83rd percentile in the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI)1 reflecting its long track record of stable and peaceful political transitions, well established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption. Uruguay`s score in the WBGI has risen since 2004, supporting better sovereign credit ratings and lower credit risk premium. As can be seen in Chart 1, there is a strong positive correlation between the WBGI and sovereign ratings as improvements in political stability and government effectiveness have led to rating upgrades over the years, while Chart 2 shows how credit risk premium2 has compressed over time.