Disengagement, Division,
or Diversification:
The Future of Globalization

Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed
MAR 12, 2023

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Key Takeaways

  • Globalization increased rapidly leading up to the financial crisis, but stagnated in the subsequent period as it matured. 
  • The pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war have drawn attention to and accelerated changing views of globalization. 
  • In the short term, we expect the U.S. to further disengage from China and economic leadership, while Japan and the EU continue to tend their economic relationship with China. 
  • Government policy shifts, rerouted capital flows and signs of financial deintegration are markers that can help observers discern globalization’s future