Economic Monthly
Well, Do You Feel Lucky? 

Drew T. Matus Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed
OCT 22, 2023

Monthly Themes


The labor market has softened – at equilibrium or on a cliff’s edge?


Fiscal concerns remain in focus as the November 17 deadline looms.


10-year treasury yields rise sharply—a temporary high?

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Shutdown Season

October data show us a decently-functioning economy, but one with numerous stressors that we expect will create further pressure on growth and could create an abrupt step down from the current decent conditions. A soft-landing scenario would require a great deal of luck to achieve.