Rate Expectations

Rate Expectations

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Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed Drew T. Matus
SEP 16, 2024
Rate Expectations
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U.S. Treasuries in the Post-Pandemic Era: More Volatility, Higher Yields

Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.

Amid this backdrop, the state of the U.S. consumer remains a pivotal factor for the strength of the U.S. economy. Even without interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and despite moderating wage growth, we have still seen an improvement in consumer balance sheets.
The expected Fed Funds rate cuts should further support the consumer through year-end.