U.S. Economic Monthly – Consumers Keep At It

Drew T. Matus Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed
JUL 18, 2023

Monthly Themes


Inflation persists as the Fed prepares to hike again.


Credit tightening to squeeze economic activity in the second half of the year.


Consumers remain surprisingly resilient.

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MIM now expects a recession to begin in 2024.

2023 is expected to continue to show mixed growth messages as the consumer maintains high enough growth to offset weakness in manufacturing. Absent a shock to the economy (from energy, banking or geopolitical), a strong desire to recoup lost time and experiences is likely to save Q4 even if consumers are feeling some strains. MIM believes the low point for growth this cycle should be 2024, when we expect the recession to start.