Our Outlook and Forecasts for 2022

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Our Outlook and Forecasts for 2022

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William Pattison Reginald Ross Michael Steinberg Matthew Biagi
FEB 02, 2022

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  • We expect commercial real estate values to rise 11% in 2022, as measured by the NCREIF Market Value Index.
  • Inflation is likely to remain above the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. Apartment and hotel assets may capture inflationary impact on rents more quickly than the other core property types, but also may be more exposed to rising operating expenses.
  • Given the unique nature of the 2020 recession and 2021 recovery, we believe the economy may be closer to a midcycle than early recovery period, and that interest rates could therefore hit their cyclical peak in 2022.
  • Investor competition is particularly strong today for certain markets and property types, potentially creating attractive investment opportunities in some of the out of favor market segments.