Four Scenarios: Recession, Soft Landing, Stagflation, or the Status Quo

Tani Fukui
NOV 16, 2022



Economic forecasts are particularly uncertain right now, and an honest assessment requires considering multiple scenarios.


We still expect a recession but see a soft landing as the most likely, off-base case scenario.

We recommend

 Decoding a Mixed Economy

U.S. Housing Market: Things that Rise Also Fall

Two of the most important economic questions right now are how high the unemployment rate will rise, and how fast inflation will fall. We see a particularly uncertain economic path forward, and so we have constructed four scenarios for year-end 2023 around these two economic indicators.

As the most likely outcome, we expect a reduction in inflation combined with elevated unemployment.1 However, other scenarios have a greater-than-usual chance of taking place and warrant a closer look.