Politics, Debt, and Recession: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed Rob Kee David Ritcher David Heslam
DEC 15, 2023

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After a strange—and surprisingly strong—2023, we expect a paring back of global growth in 2024. For the U.S., we expect recession, while for Japan and China, we expect positive but decelerating growth. We expect European countries to avoid a recession in the first half of the year with improvement in the second half. We expect inflation to normalize toward central bank targets over the year.