Economic Monthly
Next Stop Deflation?

Drew T. Matus Tani Fukui Shan Ahmed
AUG 24, 2023

Monthly Themes


Tight credit conditions persist.


Consumers remain resilient.


We raise our 2023 and 2024 GDP forecast but continue to expect a 2024 recession.

We recommend

U.S. Economic Monthly – Consumers Keep At It

Global Risks 2023 – Midyear Review

Inflation has moderated, setting the stage for an end to the hiking cycle.

We expect the second half of 2023 to see the consumer maintain sufficient strength to offset manufacturing weakness.

Absent a shock to the economy (from energy, banking or geopolitical), we believe the desire to spend on experiences is likely to save Q4.

MIM believes the low point for growth this cycle will be 2024, when we expect the recession to start.